Could Marxist Anura Dissanayake Become Sri Lanka’s Next President?

As Sri Lanka prepares for its pivotal presidential election on September 21, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the 55-year-old leader of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), emerges as a surprising frontrunner. This is especially remarkable given the JVP's tumultuous history and its position in the current political landscape.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leader of opposition political party National People's Power, gestures towards media as he arrives to file nomination for the upcoming presidential election in Colombo, Sri Lanka, Thursday, August 15, 2024

Dissanayake's journey to this unexpected prominence is marked by his recent high-profile visit to New Delhi in early February, where he met with key Indian officials including the foreign minister and national security adviser. Although his National People’s Power (NPP) alliance holds only three seats in Sri Lanka’s 225-member parliament, it has grown in influence, catching the attention of regional powers like India.

In the upcoming election, Dissanayake faces a crowded field of 38 candidates, including prominent figures such as Namal Rajapaksa, son of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa; Sajith Premadasa, son of former President R Premadasa; and incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, a nephew of Sri Lanka’s first executive President JR Jayewardene. Dissanayake, however, stands out as the leader of a party with a radical past—one that has previously sought to overthrow the very government he now aspires to lead.

The JVP’s historical context is critical. Founded in 1965, the party led two Marxist uprisings, in 1971 and the late 1980s, against the state. The 1988-89 insurrection was particularly brutal, marked by widespread violence, assassinations, and a severe crackdown by the government, resulting in the deaths of approximately 60,000 people. Dissanayake joined the JVP during this period and has since been a part of its transition from armed rebellion to political engagement.

The turning point for Dissanayake and the JVP came in 2022 amid Sri Lanka’s economic crisis, which led to severe shortages of essential goods and skyrocketing inflation. This crisis sparked the Aragalaya protests, a massive movement against the ruling government that eventually led to the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa. The JVP’s active participation in these protests helped reposition it as a major political force advocating for social justice and anti-corruption.

Dissanayake’s personal credibility has been bolstered by his outspoken stance against corruption. Writer and political analyst Gamini Viyangoda commends Dissanayake for his sincerity in aiming to reform the system, a contrast to many other politicians who are perceived as insincere.

Despite his efforts to distance the JVP from its violent past, the party's historical associations with Sinhala Buddhist nationalism and its stance on Tamil issues remain contentious. The JVP has traditionally opposed Indian intervention in Sri Lanka and supported the government during the final phases of the civil war against the Tamil Tigers, a position that has drawn criticism from Tamil communities and international observers. Dissanayake has expressed a commitment to national unity but has been criticized for not addressing ethnic tensions adequately.

Economically, Dissanayake proposes a shift towards a pro-trade approach, aiming to simplify tariff structures, improve the business environment, and position the private sector as a growth engine. This marks a departure from his party's traditional socialist stance. His stance on renegotiating Sri Lanka’s IMF agreement remains unclear, with some analysts advocating for a restructured deal that balances debt reduction with fiscal stability and sovereignty.

As Sri Lanka faces this crucial election, Dissanayake’s candidacy represents a significant shift from the country’s traditional political dynamics. Whether he can leverage his evolving image and address the nation’s economic and social challenges effectively remains to be seen. The electorate will decide whether his blend of radical past and reformist vision can meet the demands of Sri Lanka’s current political climate.